Reworking plastic waste through reuse and return schemes could wipe out most of the problem within fifteen years. Fresh research suggests that the roughly 66 million tonnes of plastic packaging pollution that enter our environment each year could be nearly eliminated by 2040, if reuse and return systems are scaled up, along with targeted polymer bans and substitutions.
This finding comes from the most comprehensive assessment yet of the global plastic system. The Pew Charitable Trusts collaborated with academics from Imperial College London and the University of Oxford to show that plastic—once hailed as a modern marvel—now threatens public health, economies, and the future of the planet.
If no action is taken, plastic pollution is projected to more than double over the next 15 years, reaching about 280 million tonnes annually. That figure equates to a dump truck full of plastic waste being discarded somewhere on the planet every second, with packaging being the dominant contributor.
Such a surge would impact nearly every facet of life—economies, public health, and climate stability—according to the report, Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025. As the authors explain, this rapid growth would elevate land, water, and air pollution, increase exposure to toxic chemicals, raise disease risks, and lead to more animals ingesting and entangling with plastic debris.
Plastic production, derived from fossil fuels, is expected to rise by 52% from 450 million tonnes this year to 680 million tonnes by 2040, outpacing waste management systems that are already stretched thin globally.
Packaging remains the top driver of plastic demand, accounting for more plastic use than any other sector in 2025 and forecast to stay dominant through 2040. Items like soft plastics, bags, bottles, and rigid containers for foods, beverages, margarine, fish, and meat are all part of this surge.
The single largest source of plastic waste worldwide is packaging, which is typically used once and discarded, with a large share not being recyclable. In 2025, packaging contributed about 33% of global plastic waste, driving roughly 66 million tonnes of pollution into the environment annually.
However, the researchers argue that packaging pollution can be dramatically reduced through coordinated measures such as deposit-return schemes and reuse programs—where consumers return empty containers or use refillable cups at stores and cafes. When paired with policies that ban certain polymers and promote alternatives, the study finds that plastic pollution could drop by as much as 97% over the next 15 years.
“We have the opportunity to transform this system and nearly eliminate pollution from packaging,” said Winnie Lau, project director for preventing plastic pollution at Pew.
Two main strategies could cut plastic packaging pollution by up to 97% by 2040. The first is widespread reuse and return programs, which could remove about two-thirds of the pollution. The second involves reducing plastic packaging production and substituting with materials such as cardboard, glass, metal, and certain polymer bans.
Beyond environmental damage, human exposure to plastics—ranging from kids playing with toys to communities near petrochemical plants—poses serious health risks. The report notes that plastic products contain more than 16,000 deliberately added chemicals, plus many incidental contaminants.
Research already links many of these chemicals to a spectrum of health effects, including hormonal disruption, reduced fertility, lower birth weights, cognitive and developmental changes in children, diabetes, and heightened cardiovascular and cancer risk factors.
From an emissions perspective, the global plastic system currently produces greenhouse gases that are expected to climb from about 2.7 gigatonnes CO2e in 2025 to roughly 4.2 gigatonnes CO2e in 2040—an increase of 58%. If plastic production were a country, its emissions would rank as the third-largest on the planet by 2040, after only China and the United States.
Yet transformation is within reach. With concerted efforts in waste management, reductions in production, and the adoption of reuse and return systems, the study estimates reductions of up to 83% in plastic pollution, a 38% drop in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 54% improvement in health impacts. Such changes could also save governments around the world about $19 billion annually in costs tied to plastic collection and disposal by 2040.
“Hope remains,” said Tom Dillon of Pew Charitable Trusts. “The global community can reshape the plastic system and solve the pollution problem within a generation, but decision-makers must prioritize people and the planet.”
Would adopting these reuse-focused strategies and material substitutions be enough to avert the worst outcomes, or are stronger, more immediate reforms necessary to protect health and the environment?
